Quiet Holiday Weekend – Active Storm System Next Week

Happy Thanksgiving!  A weak front is bringing a cloudy start on this holiday, no raindrops on the radar at Dawn.  Gradually, the clouds will melt away by about Noon or so, as sunshine gradually takes over.  High 75 today.  Low tonight 49.  Great weather for the parade at 9, and the Turkey Day classic at 3.

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QUIET WEEKEND:  Sunshine dominates on Black Friday.  High 73.  Low Friday night 44.  Cool sunshine Saturday.  High upper 60’s  Low Saturday night 37.  The weekend will end on a sunny & nice note with Sunday’s.  High near 70.

IRON BOWL:  Clear skies and great Football weather for the greatest rivalry in college football Saturday afternoon at 2:30 at Bryant Denny stadium in Tuscaloosa.  Kick off temp 66°, Halftime 64°, and End of the game 57°.  Perfect football weather!

SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM NEXT WEEK:  Looks like finally some goo, much needed rain from a big storm system, right at the end of November.  This could keep us, perhaps, form breaking the record for driest Novembers.  We’ll see.  BUT, there are many questions:  about timing, about strength, and about potential rain totals.  The Euro model is fastest.  It brings the front and storms in here after Midnight Monday night and into the day Tuesday.   Under the Euro scenario, the threat of severe weather would be a little less likely because of the timing, the dewpoints and the availability of instability and “spin” for isolated tornadoes.

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On the other hand, the American GFS model, is slower, brining the line of storms into the state late Tuesday, exiting by mid-day Wednesday.  Under this scenario, the threat of strong to severe storms and isolated tornadoes will be higher, as instability levels and available spin will be more favorable.  We will wait for the models to come into better agreement.  Timing, in this case is everything!

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Then, the question is, how much rain?  Again, it depends on which model you believe.  The GFS is driest, giving most of us .5 to perhaps just shy of an inch.  The Euro is much wetter, showing much of central and south Alabama in a 1 to 3” rain band.    Either way, it looks like some good rain next week.  Stay tuned!

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Have a great Holiday weekend!