MONDAY UPDATE:  Extreme Dorian Briefly Stalls – Hurricane Warning Florida Coast – Hot & Dry for Us

 

UPDATED 10 AM CDT DORIAN INFORMATION: 

The storm has fallen just below Cat 5 Status. Winds: 155 mph – Cat 4, Pressure up slightly to 922 mbs., moving West at 1 mph. Located: 30 miles NE of Freeport, Grand Bahama island. Hurricane Watch extended northward now into the GA coast.

New cone. With the storm nearly stationary since early this morning (moving west at 1 mph), the much anticipated, highly critical turn to the NW and then the north is expected to begins soon. But will the turn begin on time, as far to keep the center off the Florida coast?

The Hurricane Warning has now been extended northward beyond Daytona Beach. The Hurricane Watch now extends to near the GA/SC line. Center line forecast from NHC still keeps the center of Dorian offshore, but small deviations are possible in the track which could have a significant impact on the coast.

 

EARLY MORNING UPDATE: 

Good morning…on this Labor Day.  Much of this Blog Update will bring you up to speed on Extreme Hurricane Dorian, which is destroying the Bahamas, and is now roughly 100 miles or less from the Florida coast.  Will it make the expected, critical turn in time?  MUCH more on DORIAN below….

First, up, this Labor Day will be Hot & Dry and, get ready to get out the garden hose, the week ahead will be HOT and we should stay dry.

TODAY:   The news is good if you have a trip to the Lake planned or an outdoor BBQ.  Lots of sun.  HOT.  High 94. Heat index near 100 by afternoon.  Low tonight 71.  Rain chance 10% at best.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  Alabama will have NO effect from Dorian.  Sunshine, Hot and Dry.  Mid 90’s daytime.  Near 70 at night.

HURRICANE DORIAN UPDATE:  After nearly destroying the Abaco islands in the Bahamas yesterday, it will be another day of terror in places like the heavily populated Grand Bahamas island, just 70 miles east of Florida.  Dorian, this morning is 40 miles east of Freeport.  It has almost STALLED, moving West at 1 mph.  It will creep over Grand Bahama Island all day.  Winds now 165 mph.  Pressure 916 mbs.  It is about to make that highly anticipated, critical turn to the northwest and then the north.  Why is that?  The models have found a little weakness in that Upper High pressure ridge to the north.  Call it alleyway.  While the official track (center line) from NHC keeps Dorian just east of the Florida coast, it will be a close call, and any deviation could take this hurricane near the coast or just inland.

Besides the Hurricane Warning in the Bahamas, a  Hurricane Warning is in effect along the Florida east coast from just north of West Palm Beach through the Florida Spacecoast to about Cocoa Beach.  A Hurricane Watch northward to the Georgia line.  Dorian will terrorize the Florida coast through Wednesday at least, and then Thursday and Friday, the threat shifts to Georgia and the Carolinas.

BUSY ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS:  Besides Dorian, there are 4 other systems being monitored by NHC.  The one in the far eastern Atlantic could become a Depression or Tropical Storm Fernand.  The system in the Gulf is tending to drift to the west and will not be a concern to us.  It is not unusual for the Tropics to be extreme busy during Labor Day weekend.  The statistical peak of the season is September 10th.

PERSONAL  NOTE:  My heart is heavy.  I can’t imagine the level of the human suffering in the beautiful Bahamas.  For eleven years, at the invitation of the Government of the Bahamas, I attended the Bahamas Weather Conference, along with 120 other meteorologists.  At least three of those years, the conference was held in Freeport in Grand Bahamas.  Massive destruction is expected there today.  Complete terror.  I’m taking this hard.  I pray for their safety.  They have gone through hurricanes for hundreds of years and they have endured.  But, Dorian, in modern history, is  by far the worst case scenario for the northern Bahamas.  PLEASE keep these people in  your thoughts and prayers.

 

Tomorrow we are back to normal.  I will have a complete video update online tomorrow morning at 4:45AM.  Have a great Labor Day…please pray for those in the path of Dorian.  I’ll keep you informed.

–Rich