SATURDAY UPDATE:  Significant Easter Sunday Severe Weather Event – Strong Tornado Threat

It’s a chilly start on this Saturday morning, but we have a great day ahead.  Look for a mostly sunny, comfortable day, with a nice afternoon warm-up.  Call it …the calm before the storm.  Because we have an ominous storm system looming for Easter Sunday and Sunday night.

This will not be a routine Severe Weather Event.  The threat Level is unusually high.  A few strong long-lived tornadoes are not out of the question.  Widespread wind damage, and large hail is also possible.  Details below.

TODAY:    Cool start, but a nice day.  Abundant sunshine.  Comfortable.  High 77.  Becoming cloudy tonight.  Chance of showers/storms after about 2AM.  Low 57.

SUNDAY SEVERE THREAT:  The Storm Prediction Center has maintained a significant risk level for all of Alabama on Easter Sunday.   All of the state in in at least an Enhanced Risk.  Level 3 out of 5.  Much of the western half of the state is under a MODERATE Risk.  Level 4 of 5.  The Moderate Risk area is generally west of I-65.  SPC says: “Strong Long-tracked tornadoes, potentially widespread damaging winds, and large hail are possible”  A strong Tornado would be EF-2 or higher.

The most likely timeline would be from about 3PM west to 3AM East.

Tornado Probabilities of 10% probability of within 25 miles of any point, cover most of Alabama.  The western counties, in the moderate risk area, have a rather disturbing 15% chance.

Many uncertainties remain on how the severe weather threat will evolve.  For instance, there is one scenario which would allow for afternoon super-cell storms to potentially develop.  This would be the most dangerous time for strong tornadoes IF this scenario plays out.  We’ll know tomorrow morning.

Here are a few Future Radar snapshots starting at 7PM Sunday night until 4AM Monday morning.  The final band or line of storms will feature widespread wind damage and a few tornadoes embedded in the line.

BE READY FOR SEVERE WEATHER:  Have a plan of action for your family.  Be ready to go to your safe place.  Wear shoes.  If you have helmets…wear them during a warning.  You need at least two reliable ways to get a warning.  Our weather app could be one.  A Weather Radio is a very reliable way to get a warning.  It will wake you up when a warning is issued.  Do not rely on hearing a weather siren.  They are only designed to be heard by those who are outside,  and, they sometimes malfunction.  Stay in your safe place during a warning.  You can watch our LIVE stream on our weather app.  Download the App by going to the app store and search Rich Thomas Weather.

NEXT FEW DAYS:   After the storms Sunday, Monday should be a pretty nice day.  Much cooler air.  Lows in the 40’s Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday mornings.  Highs in the lower 70’s  Chance of showers late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

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I will continue to update you on this developing Major Easter Sunday Severe Weather Event.  Stay weather aware.   I will have another Blog update tomorrow morning.  I’ll have additional updates this afternoon as needed.  Follow me on Twitter:  @RichThomasWX.    Stay safe and well.


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