SUNDAY UPDATE:  Wetter Days Start the Week – Dangerous Florence Takes Aim on the Carolina Coast

If you have outdoor plans today, the weather will be much like yesterday.  Storms will be rather scarce.  But, rain chances are about to dramatically ramp up, as a frontal system enters the state and stalls.  Much of this blog update concerns the tropical threat from Dangerous Florence, taking aim on the United States southeast coastline.  And, the potential future track of Isaac.

TODAY:   Another hot and humid day ahead.  Storms will be widely scattered, much like Saturday.  Yesterday’s high was 93 with a heat index of 102.  Today will be very similar. Low tonight 72.

NEXT FEW DAYS:  A frontal system is approaching the state.  It enter the state and stall.  Low pressure “waves” will ride along the stalled front.  Rain chances are very high Monday through Wednesday.  Then, late in the week, the “Florence” effect on our weather may be to dry us out.  In other words, subsistence or sinking air around the outskirts of Florence will lower our rain chances dramatically.  That is, unless the Florence track changes.  Stay tuned for the very latest future track of Florence.

TROPICAL UPDATE:  The main players we care about are Florence and Isaac.  Helene is a tropical storm in the far eastern tropical Atlantic expected to become a fish storm curving into the Atlantic.

FLORENCE:  The potential grows for Florence to make a US landfall as an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane by about Thursday.  Most model tracks aim at the Carolinas.  Florence is a strong tropical storm, nearly a hurricane, with winds of 70 mph, expected to become a hurricane today.  The first Air Force and NOAA recon flights will enter the storm today.  This will provide valuable information for future computer model runs on the storm’s future.  Strong high pressure off the US coast is blocking a northward turn.  Florence only has one place to go…west, and then ride along the edge of the storm.  First here’s the National Hurricane Center Forecast cone.  It shows a category 4 hurricane heading for the Carolina coast, perhaps by mid day Thursday.  Don’t focus on the center line. The cone of uncertainty covers much of the Carolinas and part of Virginia.

THE MODELS –  FLORENCE:  The most consistent model forecast is the Euro (ECMWF).  It shows Florence actually making landfall in the Carolinas and moving inland.  Unfortunately, it then shows the storm getting stuck…milling around inland for a few days, squeezing out extremely dangerous life threatening flooding.  Here’s a Euro snapshot mid-day Thursday at 2PM Eastern.  Below is the Euro ensembles spaghetti models on the Florence future tracks.

Here’s a conglomeration of other global model tracks.

ISAAC:  Tropical storm Isaac is a few days from the Islands.  It could be a hurricane by the time it encounters the islands about Tuesday, and then move westward into the Caribbean.

Isaac’s long-term future is still unknown.  Will it turn into the Atlantic?   Is it destined for the Gulf of Mexico?  Maybe.  It’s too early to say.  It is possible that if it does make it to the Gulf, that could happen early in the week of September 24th.


I’ll have a complete video update online in the morning at 4:45AM.  I(‘ll update you on the skyrocketing rain chances and, of course, we will have the  latest from the National Hurricane Center.  Have a great Sunday!   I’ll see you in the morning.


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